Catastrophe & Risk Solutions

Bushfire and Wildfire Models

Estimate potential losses to both individual policies and entire property portfolios across the United States, Australia, and other wildfire-prone regions. Our wildfire models combine cutting-edge fire science, high-resolution landscape data, and detailed vulnerability analysis to precisely estimate losses for confident underwriting and portfolio management.

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A comprehensive view of wildfire risk with probabilistic wildfire modeling software

Go beyond historical data through large catalogs of simulated events that incorporate the complex factors driving fire ignition and spread. Our wildfire risk modeling approach generates thousands of simulated scenarios that reflect realistic weather conditions, fuel moisture levels, topographic influences, and ignition patterns—enabling comprehensive assessment of both frequent small fires and rare catastrophic events that could generate substantial portfolio losses.

Conduct more detailed risk assessments

High-resolution fuel, wind, vegetation, and topographic data improve risk differentiation at the individual property level. This granular wildfire risk modeling reveals dramatic exposure differences between properties mere hundreds of feet apart, based on surrounding vegetation, slope, and prevailing wind patterns.

Evaluate the impact of correlation in wildfire events

The Australian Bushfire Model considers how fires can cluster in space and time with simultaneous ignitions across broad regions. The U.S. Wildfire Model considers the probability of fires in the wildland-urban interface transforming into urban conflagrations where structure-to-structure spread drives losses. Understanding correlations is critical for portfolio-level wildfire risk modeling.

Improve risk selection and pricing through detailed vulnerability analysis

Our wildfire modeling software quantifies how Class A fire-rated roofing reduces ignition probability compared with wood shake roofs, how non-combustible siding affects radiant heat exposure, and how vegetation management within defensible space decreases structure vulnerability. Price policies based on actual property-level risk instead of applying uniform rates across fire hazard zones.

Features and capabilities

Advanced fire spread algorithms, based on Rothermel fire behavior equations and empirical fire growth patterns, simulate how fires propagate based on fuel type, topography, and weather conditions. The risk modeling platform includes thousands of stochastic event scenarios representing multiple centuries of simulated fire activity and deterministic scenario analysis for testing specific "what-if" situations.

Robust catalogs

The Verisk Bushfire and Wildfire models incorporate 10,000, 50,000 (US Wildfire only, in Touchstone^®), and 100,000-year stochastic catalogs and account for major historical events.

Insights into the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI)

Verisk Bushfire and Wildfire models explicitly model fire ignition factors, and an enhanced spread model realistically captures wildfire propagation in the WUI.

Damage functions by construction type & occupancy class

The Verisk Bushfire Model for Australia supports 44 construction types and 48 occupancy classes. The Verisk Wildfire Model for the United States supports 105 construction classes and 110 occupancy classes.

Wildfire smoke damage

The Verisk Wildfire Model for the United States explicitly models smoke damage, including exposure outside of the wildfire perimeter.

Related resources

Get insights from the latest scientific research into wildfires and bushfires. Explore thought leadership on managing wildfire risk in a changing climate and regulatory developments affecting wildfire insurance markets in California, Australia, and other high-hazard regions.

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Extreme Event Solutions Client Portal

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About Catastrophe Modeling

For rare but severe events, historical loss information is often unreliable in assessing future loss potential. That’s where catastrophe modeling comes in.

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General trainings

Certified Extreme Event Modeler (CEEM) Training

Gain insight into the science behind natural catastrophes and a behind-the-scenes look at how catastrophe models are developed and validated.

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Research

Research publications from Extreme Event Solutions

Verisk Extreme Event Models are developed by experts who are constantly innovating and driving discovery. Learn more about their groundbreaking work.

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Do more with the Verisk ecosystem

Assess and manage your exposure to wildfire risk throughout the insurance life cycle. Our ecosystem approach connects wildfire risk assessment from initial underwriting through claims resolution, supporting efficient operations and informed decision-making at every stage.